Another Saint Patrick’s Day has come and gone, and we’re now into the part of March where there’s really not a whole lot going on. In fact, unless you’re sitting on a beach somewhere for Spring Break or you’re a video game fan on your way to PAX East, you’re probably going to have a hard time finding anything beyond the local concerts, wine tastings, and other similar events that you would typically find somewhere in your local area almost every weekend. As a result, this week, I’m going to talk about something a little different than I usually do and discuss something that all of the sports fans out there can really look forward to — football.
However, I’m not just going to ramble on about football in general because there’s simply too much to say in one blog post. Instead, I’m going to focus on one specific decision that has been highlighted by sports analysts, experts, players, owners, and fans everywhere. Which decision am I talking about? I’m talking about the Patriot’s decision to pick up Danny Amendola and let Wes Welker go to Denver, of course. Many analysts and experts consider this move to be a rare mistake on the part of the Patriots, but all the talk brings about an interesting question. Was it actually a mistake to pick up Amendola?
Let’s look at some stats. Wes Welker caught 118 passes for 1,354 yards and 6 touchdowns during the 2012 season. This means that Welker averaged about 11.5 yards per reception. Danny Amendola caught 63 passes for 666 yards and 3 touchdowns during the 2012 season. Amendola, as a result, averaged about 10.6 yards per reception. Now, looking at these numbers, you can see why so many people are saying that it was a mistake to let Welker go, since Welker had almost exactly twice as many receptions, yards, and touchdowns as Amendola.
Here’s the problem though. Welker had Brady as a quarterback while Amendola had Sam Bradford. Brady threw 637 times for 4,827 yards and 34 touchdowns during the 2012 season while Bradford threw 551 times for 3,702 yards and 21 touchdowns. As you can see, there’s a big difference between Bradford’s numbers and Brady’s, which means there were less opportunities for Amendola to actually move the ball down the field. If you don’t believe me, look at the number of times that Amendola and Welker were actually targeted. Amendola was targeted 101 times and Welker was targeted 174. This means that Welker had 73 more opportunities than Amendola to catch the ball, which could explain the difference between their stats.
Now, am I saying that Amendola is going to be the next Wes Welker? No, but I am saying that he could be. Amendola is only 27, his average yards per reception has improved every year (even when he was injured), and he’s shown that he can make the long catches that every team needs to win. Welker, on the other hand, is 31, and his stats actually dipped a little in 2012 (although, this dip could have been a result of the fact that his stats were inflated by his stellar performance in 2011.) As such, the Patriot’s decision to pick up Amendola may seem strange at first glance, but was it actually a mistake? No. Is it a gamble? Maybe. But, if the Patriots put Amendola in the same role as Welker and Amendola can stay healthy, things could get very interesting in New England.